Date: Mon, 7 Mar 94 04:30:09 PST
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Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #257
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Info-Hams Digest Mon, 7 Mar 94 Volume 94 : Issue 257
Today's Topics:
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 March
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Date: Mon, 7 Mar 1994 00:01:57 MST
From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 March
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACT
06 MARCH, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT
---------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 065, 03/06/94
10.7 FLUX=095.5 90-AVG=106 SSN=101 BKI=2222 1223 BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B1.2 FLU1=4.3E+06 FLU10=1.9E+04 PKI=2233 1223 PAI=009
BOU-DEV=015,017,016,013,006,012,015,033 DEV-AVG=015 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C2.3 @ 1237UT XRAY-MIN= A8.9 @ 0710UT XRAY-AVG= B1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1845UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2355UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2320UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0850UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55342NT @ 2352UT BOUTF-MIN=55315NT @ 1858UT BOUTF-AVG=55324NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+141NT@ 1820UT GOES6-MIN=N:-083NT@ 0357UT G6-AVG=+092,+033,-032
FLUXFCST=STD:098,100,101;SESC:098,100,101 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,025/025,030,030
KFCST=3454 4433 4454 4444 27DAY-AP=054,056 27DAY-KP=4647 65*3 6566 6455
WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 MAR 94 is not available.
The Full Kp Indices for 05 MAR 94 are: 1+ 1- 1+ 2- 1o 1- 2- 3-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 MAR 94 are: 5 3 5 6 4 3 6 11
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 06 MAR is: 7.5E+06
SYNOPSIS OF ACT
--------------------
SUMMARY COVERS THE PERIOD FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C2
x-ray event was recorded at 06/1237Z. Region 7682 (S19W81) has
declined in area and spot number and produced no activity this
period. Regions 7680 (S11W29) and 7685 (S08E09) were the most
active producing numerous B-class/SF flares. Two new regions
were numbered this period: Region 7686 (N08W46) and Region
7687 (N18E16). Since appearing on the disk, both new regions
have shown white light growth. All other regions are quiet and
stable.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
very low to low. Regions 7685,7686, and 7687 all have the
potential for producing C-class activity.
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels the past 24 hours.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three
days with minor storm conditions expected at high latitudes on
days two and three.
STD: Levels of geomagnetic activity have increased to active
levels just prior to the release of this report (early on 07
March). It would appear that the coronal-hole related
disturbance has arrived. Minor storming has been observed over
many high latitude sites over the last 3 hours (07/00Z to 03Z).
Levels of auroral activity have likewise increased with only a
slight equatorward migration of the northern oval apparent at
the present time. Local night-sector substorming should
produce moderate levels of auroral activity over the next
several days.
Event probabilities 07 mar-09 mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 mar-09 mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-Severe Storm 10/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor Storm 20/30/35
Major-Severe Storm 10/20/20
HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
Some regions experienced notable enhancements in both signal
quality and MUF. Conditions are presently (early on 07 March)
beginning to wane, with poor propagation being observed over
some high latitude sites. Poor to very poor propagation is
expected over the next 48 to 72 hours on transpolar and
transauroral circuits. Middle latitudes should see good to
fair propagation with occasional night-sector poor propagation.
No improvements are expected for at least the next 48 to 72
hours.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WIT
--------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7680 S11W29 020 0000 BXO 02 002 BET
7682 S19W81 073 0100 CAO 11 007 BET
7684 S08W16 007 0010 BXO 03 003 BET
7685 S08E09 342 0100 DAO 07 014 BET
7686 N08W46 037 0030 CRO 04 005 BET
7687 N18E16 335 0040 BXO 04 010 BET
7678 S11W52 043 PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RET
NMBR LAT
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 MARCH, 1994
----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
NONE
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 MARCH, 1994
--------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
06/ 1752 B1818 N17E23 DSF B2.9 24
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXT
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
NONE VISIBLE
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
05 Mar: 0000 0003 0006 B4.3
0348 0352 0354 B2.5
1211 1223 1241 B3.7 SF 7682 S17W66
1350 1351 1354 B1.6 SF 7680 S13W08
1848 1851 1853 B2.7
2229 2230 2235 SF 7680 S11W14
2301 2304 2306 B2.4
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7680: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6)
Region 7682: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (14.3)
Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (57.1)
Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WIT
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
NO EVENTS OBSERVED.
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
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End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #257
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