Date: Sat,  8 Jan 94 18:37:53 PST
From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
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Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #16
To: Info-Hams


Info-Hams Digest            Sat,  8 Jan 94       Volume 94 : Issue   16

Today's Topics:
      Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 January
      Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 January
                 Fixing loose BNC connectors on HT's
      Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 07 January

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We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text
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policies or positions of any party.  Your mileage may vary.  So there.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Fri, 7 Jan 1994 10:41:13 MST
From: swrinde!gatech!usenet.ins.cwru.edu!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!unixg.ubc.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 January
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 JANUARY, 1994

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 JANUARY, 1994
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 006, 01/06/94
10.7 FLUX=132.1  90-AVG=101        SSN=144      BKI=2233 3202  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B4.9     FLU1=2.9E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3333 3312  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=018,014,025,028,023,018,004,017   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.2   @ 0619UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.1   @ 2034UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.2
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0040UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 0005UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55352NT @ 1434UT   BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1916UT  BOUTF-AVG=55340NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+054,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1802UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-078NT@ 0620UT  G6-AVG=+077,+025,-033
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,120;SESC:130,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,010/015,022,012
    KFCST=0003 5000 0003 5000  27DAY-AP=007,008   27DAY-KP=2223 3221 2232 2212
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0621-0629UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@0647-0710UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 JAN 94 was  63.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 JAN 94 are: 1o 1o 1+ 2-   2o 2- 1o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7646 (S08W39) generated
       the majority of the days C-class flares, accounting for six.
       The largest flare of the day was an optically uncorrelated C6
       with an associated Type II radio sweep at 06/0619Z. A new
       Region was assigned: Region 7650 (N04E41).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled due to numerous small flares.

            Event probabilities 07 jan-09 jan

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 jan-09 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions. Minor signal degradation may be sporadically observed
       on high-latitude circuits over the next several days, but
       particularly on 08 January.  Otherwise, near-normal conditions
       should persist throughout the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7645  N12W35  083  0140 FSI  18  023 BETA-GAMMA
7646  S09W38  086  0520 EKI  11  036 BETA-GAMMA
7647  S16W48  096  0030 ESO  12  003 BETA
7648  N06E29  019  0510 DKI  10  028 BETA
7650  N04E41  007  0020 BXO  05  004 BETA
7649  S12W27  075                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 JANUARY TO 09 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 JANUARY, 1994
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0607 0619 0624              C6.2        170   35    II
 0645 0654 0701              C1.4                    II
 0809 0809 0809                          400


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 JANUARY, 1994
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/0621               0629                 RSP   C6.2   17   2
06/0647               0710                 RSP   C1.4   16   2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
55   S24E53 S40E47 S30E17 S20E30  022  ISO   NEG   008 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
05 Jan: 0010  0024  0032  B8.3  SF  7645  N15W04                       
       B0105 U0115 A0126        SF  7645  N16W04                       
        0350  0402  0407  C1.4                                         
        0549  0553  0557  B7.0                                         
        0725  0725  0735        SF  7645  N14W05                       
        0743  0743  0746        SF  7646  S09W15                       
        0823  0828  0838  C2.8  SF  7645  N17W08                       
        0858  0903  0909  C1.9  SF  7646  S11W21                       
        1023  1026  1033  C1.5                                         
        1155  1158  1216  B9.4                                         
        1321  1329  1332  C1.8  SF  7648  N04E49                       
        1359  1407  1420  C1.9  SF  7645  N16W11        38             
        1450  1453  1458        SF  7646  S09W27                       
       B1505 U1512 A1515        SF  7645  N13W14                       
        1524  1531  1534  C1.4                                         
        1541  1545  1548  C1.7  SN  7648  N03E47                       
        1631  1634  1636  C1.8  SF  7646  S11W26                       
        1645  1647  1651        SF  7646  S17W29                       
        1656  1657  1702        SF  7648  N02E47                       
        1702  1704  1711        SF  7645  N14W09                       
        1718  1722  1724  C1.7  SF  7646  S11W24                       
        1754  1801  1803  C2.8  1N  7646  S10W24                       
        1819  1822  1824  C1.3  SF  7646  S06W26                       
        1840  1845  1849  C1.5                                         
        1929  1933  1935  C1.1                                         
        1943  1946  1950  C2.4  SF  7646  S05W26                       
        2339  2343  2346  B9.8                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7645:  2   0   0     7   0   0   0   0    007  (25.0)
  Region 7646:  6   0   0     8   1   0   0   0    009  (32.1)
  Region 7647:  0   1   0     0   1   0   0   0    001  ( 3.6)
  Region 7648:  2   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (10.7)
Uncorrellated: 5   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    008  (28.6)

 Total Events: 028 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
05 Jan: 0010  0024  0032  B8.3  SF  7645  N15W04   III
        0350  0402  0407  C1.4                     III
        0645  0704  0725  M1.0  1N  7647  S13W23   II,III,V
        0725  0725  0735        SF  7645  N14W05   III,V
        0743  0743  0746        SF  7646  S09W15   III
        0823  0828  0838  C2.8  SF  7645  N17W08   III
        1155  1158  1216  B9.4                     III
        1359  1407  1420  C1.9  SF  7645  N16W11   III,V
       B1505 U1512 A1515        SF  7645  N13W14   III
        1656  1657  1702        SF  7648  N02E47   III
        2339  2343  2346  B9.8                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **

------------------------------

Date: Fri, 7 Jan 1994 22:01:43 MST
From: sdd.hp.com!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!unixg.ubc.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 January
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 JANUARY, 1994

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 JANUARY, 1994
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 007, 01/07/94
10.7 FLUX=126.3  90-AVG=101        SSN=135      BKI=1001 2011  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B3.8     FLU1=5.8E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1113 3121  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=006,004,004,008,015,004,009,009   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=01:003
 XRAY-MAX= M1.3   @ 0943UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 2034UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2135UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2335UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1335UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 1520UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 1911UT  BOUTF-AVG=55344NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1716UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 0907UT  G6-AVG=+095,+025,-027
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,110;SESC:120,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/022,012,010
    KFCST=0003 5000 0003 5000  27DAY-AP=008,007   27DAY-KP=2232 2212 2124 2211
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.3/1N@0943UTC;**TENFLR:250SFU@1233UTC,DUR=4MIN
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 JAN 94 was  69.1.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 JAN 94 are: 3o 3- 3- 3o   3- 3- 1+ 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7646 (S10W51)
       produced an M1/1N flare at 07/0943Z and six C-class bursts.
       Other regions on the disk remained stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours. High latitude stations reported active
       conditions from 1200-1500Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active due to moderate flare
       activity.

            Event probabilities 08 jan-10 jan

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 jan-10 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/15/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Conditions are expected to remain sporadically unstable over
       the high and polar latitude paths during the next several days.
       Several weak interplanetary disturbances may be observed from
       the minor flare activity that has occurred over the last
       several days.  Otherwise, near-normal conditions will persist
       if these disturbances fail to arrive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7645  N13W49  084  0110 FAO  17  010 BETA-GAMMA
7646  S08W51  086  0400 EKI  11  021 BETA
7647  S15W61  096  0050 ESO  12  004 BETA
7648  N07E17  018  0440 EKI  11  029 BETA
7649  S17W46  081  0010 HRX  01  002 ALPHA
7650  N05E28  007  0040 CSO  07  009 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 JANUARY TO 10 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 1994
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0937 0943 0945 7646  S09W45 M1.3  1N          45
 1231 1241 1257 7646  S04W44 C2.3  SF         250
 2340 2340 2340                          100


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 1994
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/A2326            07/B1447    S24E12     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
55   S38E56 S38E56 S29E09 S19E13  008  ISO   NEG   017 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
06 Jan: 0050  0053  0055  C1.3                                         
        0402  0407  0409  C4.9                                   200   
        0607  0619  0624  C6.2                          35             
        0645  0654  0701  C1.4                                         
        0746  0759  0803  C4.6  SN  7646  S09W34                  30   
        1003  1012  1028  C1.4  SF  7646  S09W32                       
        1236  1240  1245  C4.2  SN  7646  S09W35                  99        40
        1428  1434  1444  C2.2  SF  7646  S11W37                       
        1518  1521  1523  C1.4  SF  7646  S10W36                       
        1658  1703  1706  B8.5  SF  7646  S09W38                       
        1725  1738  1801  C1.1  SF  7646  S11W37                       
        1855  1901  1903  C1.1  SF  7646  S09W39                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7646:  7   0   0     8   0   0   0   0    008  (66.7)
Uncorrellated: 4   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (33.3)

 Total Events: 012 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
06 Jan: 0607  0619  0624  C6.2                     II,III,V
        0645  0654  0701  C1.4                     II
        0746  0759  0803  C4.6  SN  7646  S09W34   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **

------------------------------

Date: 9 Jan 94 01:21:23 GMT
From: news.sprintlink.net!clark.net!andy@uunet.uu.net
Subject: Fixing loose BNC connectors on HT's
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu

Matthew Rapaport (mjr@crl.com) wrote:
: Some months back (Oct. | Nov.) in MT there was a description of how to 
: tighten up on BNC connectors that had gotten loose after many 
: connect-disconnect cycles. The problem is that the V shaped inner connector
: becomes loose.

: The article said to squeeze the ends of the inner connector together a little
: bit. It is not clear if you are supposed to take the connector *out* of
: the radio to do this. If so how? In my Alinco, this connector is seated
: very tightly in the plastic insulator. I could try to pry it out, but it
: seems as though I might be detaching it from what ever it is connected to if
: I do... 

I have the same problem with my Alinco. From experience, the BNC 
connector is the weakest link on the HT. I watched someone resolder the 
inner connector...disassembling the radio to get to the BNC connectors 
was not a pretty sight; it's pretty well buried.

But back to your problem... I used a tiny screwdriver; the kind you 
tighten eyeglasses with; carefully inserted the screwdriver between the 
metal and plastic, and pushed toward the center. Repeating for the other 
piece of metal. That seemed to help. Nevertheless, I've seen better 
quality BNC's than what's used in the Alinco.

andy/k4adl

------------------------------

Date: Fri, 7 Jan 1994 15:31:40 MST
From: sdd.hp.com!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!unixg.ubc.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 07 January
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu

               ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                        January 07 to January 16, 1994

                Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                   P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
                                   T0K 2E0
                    Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008

                                  ---------

SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
----------------------------------------------------

  |10.7 cm|HF Propagation  +/- CON|SID           AU.BKSR  DX| Mag| Aurora |
  |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|ENH LO MI HI  LO MI HI  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
--|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------|
07|  125  | G  G  F  F  40 +10  70| 40 NA NA NA  00 05 10 40|2 10|NV NV LO|
08|  120  | G  G  P  P  35  00  65| 35 NA NA NA  02 10 20 30|3 18|NV LO MO|
09|  115  | G  G  F  F  30 +05  65| 30 NA NA NA  01 10 20 30|3 14|NV NV MO|
10|  115  | G  G  F  F  30 +10  70| 30 NA NA NA  01 05 15 35|2 10|NV NV LO|
11|  110  | G  G  F  F  30 +10  70| 30 NA NA NA  01 05 15 35|2 12|NV NV LO|
12|  100  | G  G  P  P  20  00  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 15 25 30|4 20|NV LO MO|
13|  100  | G  G  P  P  20  00  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 15 25 30|4 20|NV LO MO|
14|  105  | G  G  F  F  20 +05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 10 20 30|3 15|NV NV LO|
15|  110  | G  G  F  F  20 +05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 10 15 30|2 10|NV NV LO|
16|  110  | G  G  F  F  20  00  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 10 15 30|2 10|NV NV LO|


PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (07 JAN - 16 JAN)
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE |   | **|** |   |   | * | * |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED | * |***|***|** |***|***|***|***|** |** | NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|

                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 65%

NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.


60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY

         ____________________________________________________________
     51 |                             J                              |
     48 |                             J                              |
     46 |                             J                              |
     43 |                             J                              |
     41 |                             J                              |
     38 |                       M     J                              |
     36 |                       MM    J                              |
     33 |                       MM    J                              |
     31 |                       MM    J                              |
     28 |                       MM    J                              |
     26 |                       MM    J                              |
     23 |                       MM    J                              |
     20 |                      AMM    J                        A     |
     18 |         AA           AMM    J       A              AAA     |
     15 |         AA           AMM   AJ       AA             AAAA    |
     13 |         AA           AMM   AJ       AAU  U         AAAA    |
     10 | U   U   AA           AMM   AJ       AAU  U         AAAAU  U|
      8 |UU  UUUU AAU     U  U AMMUU AJ  U   UAAUUUUUUU      AAAAU  U|
      5 |UUQ UUUUQAAU  Q QU  U AMMUUQAJQUUU  UAAUUUUUUUUU    AAAAUQ U|
      3 |UUQQUUUUQAAUQQQQQUQQUQAMMUUQAJQUUUQQUAAUUUUUUUUUQQQQAAAAUQQU|
      0 |UUQQUUUUQAAUQQQQQUQQUQAMMUUQAJQUUUQQUAAUUUUUUUUUQQQQAAAAUQQU|
         ------------------------------------------------------------
                         Chart Start Date:  Day #313

NOTES:
     This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
     A-index or the Boulder A-index.  Graph lines are labelled according
     to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day.  The left-
     hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
     Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
     J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
----------------------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
151 |                                                            |
148 |                                                      *     |
145 |                                                      **    |
142 |                                                   *  **    |
139 |                                                *  *****    |
136 |                                                *  *****  * |
133 |                                                ** ****** * |
130 |                                                ** ****** **|
127 |                                                ************|
124 |                                               *************|
121 |                                               *************|
118 |                                              **************|
115 |                                              **************|
112 |                                              **************|
109 |                      *                      ***************|
106 |                      * *   *                ***************|
103 |         *           ***** ***              ****************|
100 |      ******  **     *********             *****************|
097 |      ***********    **********            *****************|
094 |    *************   ************           *****************|
091 |   *************** ***************       *******************|
088 |************************************     *******************|
085 |************************************** *********************|
082 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #313


GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
-----------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
102 |                                                            |
101 |                                                        ****|
100 |                                                   *********|
099 |                                              **************|
098 |                                  **************************|
097 |                            ********************************|
096 |                         ***********************************|
095 |                     ***************************************|
094 |         ***************************************************|
093 |************************************************************|
092 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #313

NOTES:
     The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
     by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
     Ottawa).  High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
     activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
     The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day
     mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
---------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
161 |                                                            |
154 |                                                          * |
147 |                                                          * |
140 |                                                          **|
133 |                                                    **  * **|
126 |                                                    *** ****|
119 |                                              *     *** ****|
112 |                                             **   * *** ****|
105 |                                             ** ******* ****|
098 |                     **  *  *                ** ******* ****|
091 |                    *** ** **                ***************|
084 |                    **********               ***************|
077 |            *  *    ***********              ***************|
070 |            ** *   ************             ****************|
063 |            ****   ************             ****************|
056 |        *********  **************          *****************|
049 |        *************************      * * *****************|
042 |      ***************************     ** *******************|
035 | **  ****************************  *  ** *******************|
028 | ** ****************************** * *** *******************|
021 |*** ********************************************************|
014 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #313

NOTES:
     The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
     daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC.


HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (07 JAN - 16 JAN)

                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |***| **| **|***|***| **| **|***|***|***|
 -------   |           POOR |   |*  |*  |   |   |*  |*  |   |   |   |
   65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD | * |   |   | * | * |   |   | * | * | * |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |* *| **|***|* *|* *| **| **|* *|* *|* *|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |*  |   |   |   |*  |*  |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD | **| * | * | **| **| * | * | **| **| **|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |*  |* *|* *|*  |*  |* *|* *|*  |*  |*  |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
        NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
   Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 30      deg. S.
 

POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (07 JAN - 16 JAN)
   INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS

                   HIGH LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
| FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
|CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% | **| * | * | **| **| * | * | **| **| **| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| |*| | | |*|*| | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|


                  MIDDLE LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
| FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
|CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      60% |* *|  *|* *|* *|* *| **| **|***|***|***| 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% | * |   |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |***| **|***|***|***| **| **|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

                    LOW LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
| FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
|CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      60% |***|***|***|***|***|***|** |***|***|***| 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% | **| **| **| **| **| **| * | **| **| **| 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

NOTES:
      These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz
bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts.


AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (07 JAN - 16 JAN)

                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE | * | * |   |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |            LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |            LOW |   | * |   |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   80%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

NOTE:
     Version 2.00b of our Professional Dynamic Auroral Oval Simulation
Software Package is now available.  This professional software is
particularly valuable to radio communicators, aurora photographers,
educators, and astronomers.  For more information regarding this software,
contact: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".

     For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca"
or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and
related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.


**  End of Report  **

------------------------------

End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #16
******************************
******************************