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Subject: Info-Hams Digest V93 #1516
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Info-Hams Digest Tue, 28 Dec 93 Volume 93 : Issue 1516
Today's Topics:
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 December
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Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1993 22:42:07 MST
From: destroyer!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@uunet.uu.net
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 December
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
27 DECEMBER, 1993
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 361, 12/27/93
10.7 FLUX=140.4 90-AVG=099 SSN=107 BKI=0121 1211 BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B6.9 FLU1=9.0E+05 FLU10=1.1E+04 PKI=1121 2211 PAI=005
BOU-DEV=004,009,013,005,008,019,008,006 DEV-AVG=009 NT SWF=01:012
XRAY-MAX= M1.9 @ 1853UT XRAY-MIN= B5.0 @ 0649UT XRAY-AVG= C1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2110UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2020UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0915UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 0945UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55351NT @ 2346UT BOUTF-MIN=55323NT @ 1900UT BOUTF-AVG=55343NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1727UT GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 0815UT G6-AVG=+088,+024,-030
FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,135;SESC:130,135,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,030/015,025,030
KFCST=3333 3333 3344 5434 27DAY-AP=004,022 27DAY-KP=2101 1211 2115 5435
WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.9/SF@1853,N10W20(7640)
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 DEC 93 was 48.6.
The Full Kp Indices for 26 DEC 93 are: 2- 0+ 1o 2- 3- 2+ 2o 3-
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was moderate. Region 7640 (N09W23)
continued as the flare producer. It was responsible for an
M1/SF flare at 27/1836UT and six small C-class flares through
the period. New Region 7644 (N11W11) was numbered after being
split off the trailer portion of 7640.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate. Region 7640 has the best chance of producing
additional, occasional M-class activity and an outside chance
of an isolated X-class flare. Region 7644 also has a small
chance of an isolated M-class flare.
STD: The frequency of flaring within Region 7640 decreased
today. However, the signatures of those flares which were
observed changed from very impulsive bursts to longer decaying
events. Also, the background x-ray flux appears to have
increased to near C-class levels. There is some question
whether the observed 10.7 cm flux of 140.4 was flare-enhanced.
A second 10.7 cm flux measurement taken at 22:00 UTC measured
135.4 sfu. This, together with the fact that there apparently
were no 10.7 cm emissions from the M1.9/SF flare at 18:53 UTC
suggests that the increased emission likely was not directly
flare enhanced, but was rather a natural increase in radiation
perhaps related to the flare but not directly correlated with
it. The region may be gradually stabilizing, or it may have
entered a period of dormancy where magnetic energy is being
stored instead of released in the form of smaller flares. If
the latter is true, larger flares could ensue provided a
suitable trigger mechanism appears.
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
for the past 24 hours.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, then
unsettled to minor storm for the remainder of the forecast
period as a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position.
Event probabilities 28 dec-30 dec
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 dec-30 dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/25
Minor Storm 10/25/25
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 15/35/35
Major-Severe Storm 05/10/15
HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
Similar conditions will persist until 29 December when the
coronal-hole related disturbance noted above should begin
degrading high and polar latitude paths. The activity should
peak on 30 December where activity could surpass the minor
storm threshold. Poor to very poor propagation can be expected
over the high and polar latitude paths on 30 December if this
disturbance is as geoeffective as expected. Middle latitude
paths should see good to fair propagation on these active days.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7640 N08W25 204 0530 FKI 18 054 BETA-GAMMA
7641 N03W22 201 0060 HSX 02 002 ALPHA
7643 S17E28 151 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA
7644 N11W11 190 0070 DAO 06 010 BETA
7642 N11W60 240 PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 DECEMBER TO 30 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT LO
7629 S20 083
7630 S10 087
7634 S12 073
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A. ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
0313 0318 0322 7640 N04W18 C1.6 SF 250 30
0909 0915 0923 7640 N07W13 C4.8 SF 550 31
0928 0928 0930 460
1326 1326 1326 190
1445 1445 1445 110
1740 1740 1742 160
1836 1853 1859 7640 N10W20 M1.9 SF
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
26 Dec: 0008 0013 0015 B7.7
0023 0029 0032 C1.6
0334 0339 0343 B6.6 SF 7640 N06W01
0508 0519 0528 C1.7 SF 7640 N05W04
0538 0548 0550 C3.3
0614 0617 0620 C2.5 SF 7640 N07W03
0640 0645 0648 C1.5
0715 0727 0734 C4.6 1F 7640 N06W06 63
0840 0848 0851 C3.6 SF 7640 N06W05
0910 0914 0921 C2.8 SF 7640 N06W00
0937 0941 0944 C2.5 SF 7640 N05W09
0948 0951 0953 B7.5
0958 1009 1020 C1.4 SF 7640 N06W05
1029 1039 1043 C4.0
1118 1121 1123 B7.7
1126 1131 1135 C3.0
1218 1221 1223 B7.3
1335 1341 1346 C2.4 1N 7640 N10W01
1459 1505 1509 C5.7 1F 7640 N07W06
1541 1551 1601 C6.5 1F 7640 N07W11 69 47 28
1702 1706 1709 C2.2 SF 7640 N06W12 23
1733 1736 1738 C1.0 SF 7640 N11W09
1741 1745 1747 C1.0
1754 1803 1812 C2.0 SF 7640 N11W10
1831 1840 1847 SF 7640 N06W09
1900 1906 1919 C1.6 SF 7640 N06W10
1931 1935 1937 C1.5 SF 7640 N05W14
2028 2032 2036 C1.1
2101 2110 2127 C1.3
2236 2240 2245 C3.0 SF 7640 N08E02
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7640: 16 1 0 14 5 0 0 0 019 (61.3)
Uncorrellated: 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 (38.7)
Total Events: 031 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
26 Dec: 0023 0029 0032 C1.6 III
0508 0519 0528 C1.7 SF 7640 N05W04 III
0538 0548 0550 C3.3 III
0715 0727 0734 C4.6 1F 7640 N06W06 II,III
0910 0914 0921 C2.8 SF 7640 N06W00 III
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
------------------------------
End of Info-Hams Digest V93 #1516
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